Who are the Sharks’s Goal-Scorers?

There has been some off-season talk about the San Jose Sharks making a push to trade for John Tavares of the New York Islanders. Tavares has been a strong goal-scorer for the Islanders, having been in the top 3 on his team for goals scored every season since being drafted in 2009.

I wanted to better understand how goal scoring was distributed among the Sharks to make it easier to imagine Tavares being added to the line-up. I threw this visualization together using R to help out.

Data includes goals scored per San Jose Sharks player since the 2013-2014 NHL season. I only included current SJ Sharks players with at least 5 full NHL seasons of data. Data is not adjusted for games played, so games missed due to injuries are reflected in the graph. I think this is fair because a skilled goal scorer is useless if he isn’t also durable. Can’t put points on the board if you aren’t playing.

Thoughts:

  • Based on John Tavares’s last five seasons, the median for his goals scored would be 33 and his best was 38 in 2014-2015. If included on this graph, he’d be the 2nd strongest goal scorer, right after Pavelski.
  • Patrick Marleau was (sadly) traded to the Toronto Maple Leafs ahead of the 2017-2018 season. If he was never traded, he’d appear on this chart between Pavelski and Couture with a median goals scored of 27 and a season-high of 33 goals in 2013-2014.
  • Of the recent Sharks additions excluded from this list, the only skaters with decent goal counts for a single season are Timo Meier (21 goals in 2017), Chris Tierney (17 goals in 2017), Joonas Donskoi (14 goals in 2017), and Kevin Labanc (11 goals in 2017).  However, none of these are particularly impressive and these players will likely end up charted near the middle around Hertl or Boedker.
  • As expected, defensemen occupy the bottom of the list. The clear exception here, of course, is Brent Burns. Seeing him occupy the 3rd highest slot despite being a defenseman is impressive.
  • Admittedly, I didn’t realize Joe Pavelski’s production was that much higher than the rest of the team.
  • Washington Capitals’s Alexander Ovechkin’s 5-year running goal median is 50. Wow. The Sharks need one of those.

Top 5 Fast Food Strawberry Milkshakes

I’ve been on the road a lot over the last few months. Admittedly, this means consuming more fast-food over the last several weeks than I have in the last several years. One can only consume the same fast-food salads over and over again before eventually feeling a need to explore the rest of the menus. Also, its been hot so…milkshakes.

Methodology: Not super scientific. I purchased the smallest size available at each place. Told myself I would stop at 5 but I couldn’t stop at a lower number, because then it would be a stupid looking list. Here’s how they ranked.

5. In-N-Out

Generous sizing. Not very strawberry-y. Too sweet. Internet research says the shake contained 67g of sugar. Oof.

4. McDonald’s

Whipped cream is a nice touch. Also not very fruity and also very very sweet. Liquid candy, but what did I expect. You have to slowly sip this one. Internet says 71g of sugar. Hoowwww….

3. Burger King

Seemed more drinkable and not obnoxiously sweet than the previous two…but then I looked it up and it has 91g of sugar. HOW? Is my tongue broken? I don’t remember the serving size being that much larger. In any case, I ranked them before I researched them so…#3 it is.

2. Sonic

T H I C C. Lower on the berry flavor than the previous three, but with the texture of real berries inside. This was the only one I had where I honestly thought it could have been sweeter, but it was also the last one I had and maybe my tongue got broken from the sugar overload of the previous shakes. Internet says 40g of sugar in my mini-shake. Thank you, Sonic, for offering a mini.

1. Del Taco

First one I had. Best tasting shake–the strongest strawberry flavor of the bunch and with the texture of real berries. Mini-sized for $1. A little on the sweet side, but still very gulp-able. Internet says 40g of sugar in this tiny guy.

Final thoughts:

  • The sugar alone in these shakes added 1,196 calories from added sugar into my diet, which I suppose isn’t too awful.
  • Unless you are sharing with a group of friends, I honestly see no reason why anyone should ever buy anything larger than the smallest sized shake (other than $$$ of course).
  • #1 (Del Taco) and #2 (Sonic) were the only shakes I actually enjoyed drinking. If you like your shakes really thick, pick Sonic. If you like your shakes more drinkable yet still creamy, pick Del Taco.
  • I should have paid attention to sizing. There was a lot of variance between each location’s smallest size.
  • Honestly, this was probably a good experience for me. I’m fairly repulsed at the idea of a shake/ice cream/soda by now. I can go another several years without one.

2018 Stanley Cup Playoff Conclusion

Capitals beat the Golden Knights 4-1. With the ongoing joke being that the Caps are just the Sharks of the Eastern Conference, I suppose I could say that my original pick for the winner was right all along, I just had the wrong conference. I’m very happy to see Washington finally get their win and I suppose the “Caps West” label for the Sharks can’t be applied anymore.

Highlights of this series for me:

  • Devante Smith-Pelly was a joy to watch. You could see him putting in max effort during every shift, and it paid off. In only 24 playoff games, Smith-Pelly matched his goal count of 7 goals that he scored during the regular season.
  • Braden Holtby’s “The Save” + nervous Ovi during the final moments of game 2. It gave Washington their first win may have very well been the source of the momentum that carried them through their next 3 wins.
  • The simple fact that we had a Las Vegas vs Washington D.C. match-up. I’m always in favor of anything that spreads awareness of of this sport that I enjoy watching and playing. Having a finals between a brand new hockey market (Vegas) and a team fighting for their very first championship (Washington) will likely bring in new fans.

Predictions/Hopes for next season

  • Healthy Joe Thornton at 1C and contributing as he did before his injuries
  • Sharks do not win any major trades or acquisitions (e.g. Tavares or Kovalchuk) but their 3rd and 4th forward lines and bottom defensive pairings blossom in the 2018-2019 season. Boedker has a breakout year.
  • Injury-free Evander Kane
  • Joe Pavelski evolves his playing style. As legendary as he is at fighting for space in front of the net and tipping shots, I worry this play style is diminishing in effectiveness. Pavelski’s goal counts have almost monotonically decreased since 2013-2014. With the projected 2018-2019 top line being Kane-Thornton-Pavelski, the Sharks run the risk of having a very slow top line. I’d like to see a bit more symmetry between Kane’s and Pavelski’s speed of movement so there’s always someone opening up for Thornton to feed.

2018 NHL Playoff Predictions Finals Update

See last post here.

Wowwwww. Vegas Golden Knights vs Washington Capitals in the NHL Stanley Cup finals. A team making it to the finals in its inaugural year + a team that has been in the finals 27 times since 1974 but has never won the Stanley Cup. A historic year for hockey and a treat for sport fans that value league parity (contrast with the NBA finals, where the Golden State Warriors have faced the Cleveland Cavaliers in the finals every year since 2015).

Anyway, let’s keep the prediction post organized like the previous ones.

What went right

Washington did beat Tampa Bay. Prediction accuracy for the last round was 1 of 2 (50%).

What went wrong

Winnipeg fell to Vegas after 5 games. My hope of a Jets sweep was far off.

Thoughts on the Finals

Las Vegas (1) vs Washington (1)

Capitals, take my ༼ つ ◕_◕ ༽つSHARKS FAN energy

Vegas’s depth > Caps’s depth. Also Fleury > Holtby. However, Caps in 4 because that’s what I want. Or 5. Or 6. Or 7. Pls

 

 

2018 NHL Playoffs Predictions 2nd Round Update

Ooof. Owie. First round predictions weren’t bad. Second round? Not good.

What went right

Really not a whole lot to say, here. Tampa Bay did end up beating Boston to fix that quadrant of my bracket, but that’s about all I got right. Prediction accuracy in this round was 1 for 4 (25%).

What went wrong

  • RIP Sharks. I knew the Golden Knights were going to be a tough team to beat and that if the Sharks were going to win, it would take a full 7 games. Sadly, San Jose didn’t make it that far; Vegas took the series in 6 games.
  • Caps beat the Penguins! I’m happy to have gotten this one wrong.
  • I thought that Nashville would dominate Winnipeg but Winnipeg ended up winning the series after 7 games. I know very little about Winnipeg but they must be doing something special to have survived against what I consider to be a very stacked team. I’m looking forward to using this as an opportunity to learn more about the Jets.

Thoughts on next matchups

Las Vegas (1) vs Winnipeg (2)

I’m on the Jets bandwagon. I can’t even name more than 3 players on the roster but I’d love to watch them eliminate Vegas. It would be educational to see what it finally took to knock out the Golden Knights. Jets in 4 because that’s what I want.

Tampa Bay (1) vs Washington (1)

Go Sharks East Capitals! Washington in 6.

2018 NHL Playoffs Predictions 1st Round Update

Update from my playoff predictions post now that the 1st Round has ended.

What went right

  • Correctly guessed the winner in 7 of 8 matchups (87.5%)
  • Sharks did end up beating the Ducks despite being the lower seed. Not only that, they swept.

What went wrong

  • Boston (2) vs Toronto (3). I wanted Toronto to win this one despite being the lower seed. Series ended up going 7 games and Toronto fell apart in the last period of game 7.
  • I was all over the place in my predictions for how short/long series would last. Some examples: In both the Kings vs Golden Knights and the Sharks vs Ducks series, I predicted they would last a full 7 games. In both cases, the winning team went undefeated and finished the series early at 4. My predictions for series length were only correct in 2 of the 8 matchups (25%)
  • Joe Thornton did not make an appearance as I predicted.

Thoughts on next matchups

Nashville (1) vs Winnipeg (2)

Again, I find Nashville to be the dominant team. I’d say Nashville in 4 but Colorado took 2 games from them in the previous round so I’ll adjust my prediction to Nashville in 6.

Las Vegas (1) vs San Jose (3)

Uhhh Las Vegas is spooky but I underestimated how San Jose would do in the last round. Scattered thoughts: San Jose never once beat the Golden Knights during the regular season. Sharks have more depth (IMO) than they have ever had in recent memory so if they are going to win this one, it might take 7 games.

Tampa Bay (1) vs Boston (2)

Boston knocked out my Round 1 prediction so I want Tampa Bay to win to fix my bracket. Boston looked like a strong playoff team against Toronto but Tampa Bay has had plenty of time to rest whereas Boston’s series went 7 games. Tampa Bay in 6.

Washington (1) vs Pittsburgh (2)

Oh boy! Big matchup. I’m not as familiar with the Capitals’s top lines/pairings as well as I am with the Penguins’s, but I know the Penguins’s top lines/pairings are scary. Pittsburgh in 6.

2018 NHL Playoffs Predictions

2018 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs start today. I’m going to embarrass myself but whatever…here are my predictions.

First Round Predictions

Nashville (1) vs Colorado (WC)

Nashville is OP. Preds have more depth and playoff experience. This it the only match-up that I predict will end in 4 games.

Winnipeg (2) vs Minnesota (3)

I know next to nothing about these teams but I know that Minnesota’s Ryan Suter is out with a late season injury. Based on that and the two teams’ regular seasons stats, I give Winnipeg a big edge.

Las Vegas (1) vs Los Angeles (WC)

Kings have superior players but the Golden Knights have better depth. I’m predicting a long, low-scoring series between these two teams and believe the bottom lines/pairings will win it.

Anaheim (2) vs San Jose (3)

Ducks are spooky but go sharks! I’m predicting that this one will be a tough series, Joe Thornton will play in at least one of the home games, and a lot of penalty minutes but not many power-play goals from either team.

Tampa Bay (1) vs New Jersey (WC)

Taylor Hall will go HAM and New Jersey’s top line will give Tampa Bay a hard time, but Tampa Bay is the stronger team. New Jersey not having a solid starting goalie situation will also hurt them.

Boston (2) vs Toronto (3)

Boston is a stronger team on paper but I want Toronto to win. Predicting Boston’s defense will not be enough to contain very spread-out scoring between Leafs skaters.

Washington (1) vs Columbus (WC)

I am expecting some Panarin highlight-reel goals but Capitals’s top two lines are too strong. Washington in 5.

Pittsburgh (2) vs Philadelphia (3)

Penguins have too much offensive talent, playoff experience, and leadership to lose this one. I hear Claude Giroux had a spectacular season but the Flyers never once managed to figure out how to beat the Penguins in the regular season. I think it will be a good match up and the games will be close but they will lose in 5 or 6 games.

The Scam

Last summer, I tried to sell some old Nintendo games on KSL Classifieds (Salt Lake City’s more popular Craigslist alternative). A few hours after posting, I received a text message.

Seemed normal, so I reached out to this individual’s “brother” to see if he was interested.

Here’s what I got back.

Several things seem suspicious by this point:

  • Messages are out of order
  • He says “video game” despite my ad being for a collection of several games
  • This individual wants me to take my ad down and pay extra with a money order
  • He said kindly. Note to scammers…no one uses the word kindly except for you. It’s a dead giveaway. “Kindly” is to scammer as “meddling” is to Scooby-Doo villain.

I could have ceased all communications by this point, but I wanted to press further. I wanted to understand where this scam would go.

The response:

So… I take down my ad and this person will pay me with a money order + extra and his “mover” will come over to pick up the item. I’m super curious to see where this goes so I go along with it.

Now it starts to make sense. Here is how the scam works:

  1. Scammer asks seller to take down the ad and guarantee sale in exchange for more money
  2. Seller agrees. Takes down ad and awaits instructions.
  3. Scammer provides details of a money order that will arrive in the mail for the price of the item + extra money. Scammer probably will instruct seller to cash this money order and inform scammer when that is done.
  4. Once money order is deposited, scammer dispatches “mover” to pick up the item from seller.
  5. Several days later, the seller will learn that the deposited money order was fraudulent. This leaves seller with no item, no payment, and fees from the bank for the deposit of a bad check. And I guess the scammer gets my Nintendo games?

Anyway…I have no intention of giving my item up to the scammer, nor am I interested in seeing this “mover” in person.

…but I kind of want a souvenir from this. I mess with them a little more and then send them a fake name but a real mailing address so I can see this money order. I also mess with them a little bit by changing the item i’m selling to see if they’re even paying attention.

[not shown…message I sent scammer with details on how to get me the money order]

The next day, I received a huge batch of texts informing me that his father unexpectedly passed away. In all of the confusion, the secretary accidentally mailed out a money order for too high of an amount–about $900. I’m instructed to deposit the money order when I receive it, withdraw the accidental overage, and give that cash along with the video game to the “mover”.

Now I see where this scam becomes much more lucrative for the scammer. It’s not just that they get away with the item i’m selling…but that they also instruct me to pull out a larger sum of cash to return to the “mover”.

I didn’t bother posting the rest of the screenshots of the conversation–its mostly details about the confusion caused by the father’s death, more instructions, and pleas to continue moving forward with the transaction. It ends after a few hours of ceasing communication.

Several days later, though!…

HAHAHA they actually spent $6.65 to rush deliver a fraudulent money order to my address…complete with the fake name I provided them:

Since this scam utilized the US Postal Service, I was able to report it (along with the tracking info and origin address) for fraud investigation.  Slim-to-zero chance that anyone got caught, but I was able to document the steps of the scam to USPS. Hopefully, that information got used to better train people on how to avoid this particular scam.

Total score at end of day:
Scammer(s): -$6.65
Me: A stupid souvenir check for Pete Za

Thanks, Google Images

I’ve been using Anki along with AnkiDroid to create French flashcards. Whenever I encounter a new word/phrase I want to retain, I turn it into a highly personalized flashcard, which gets added to my Anki deck that I review daily.

For example, here is one of my noun cards for the french word for “bad luck” (malchance), featuring the first couple of things I associate with the word:

I’ve relied heavily on Google Images to make flashcard creation as quick as possible. However, Google changed something about their search algorithm within the last 6 months that has really slowed me down. Before, Google Images seemed to be like a big shotgun blast of any image tagged with or sitting in a page with words in my search term. Now, it seems like there is a new layer in-between my search and the results I see. Google Images assumes what it thinks I’m interested in, only shows me images of that category, and hides the rest. It is up to me to clarify further by clicking buttons from a list or by entirely redefining my search term. This might be valuable for some people, but it’s been a nightmare for my flashcard creation process where I have to regularly fight the image search engine to show me something I’m certain the old algorithm would have given me.

Top 10 worst examples:

10. “Pleasure”

“Hey Google. Got any pictures representing pleasure? Like maybe a stock image of someone enjoying some candy or a massage or maybe even something romantic?”

“Yeah, man. Here you go!”

9. “Honor”

“I know it’s abstract, but I’m needing an image to represent honor.”

“I’ve got you covered.”

8.  “Shuffle”

Shuffle has a lot of meanings! I might get the shuffle icon from a media player, or a deck of cards, or–”

“Cartoon chicks!”

7. “In reverse”

“Got any pictures of a car backing up or the alphabet going backwards?”

“Yeah, but this band is pretty good, too.”

6. “Damages”

*sigh* “…damages please”

“You bet.”

5. “Wander”

“Y u do dis to me”

“CARTOONS.”

4. “Melody”

“Surely everyone knows what a melody is. It should be unambiguous”

“CARTOONS.”

3. “Long lasting”

“…Lo-”

“MAKEUP!”

2. “Edge”

Edge…”

“okay I get it…he’s a wrestler. But I want a sharp edge

“I don’t even know what that is. Can you please just give me…you know… like a cutting edge?”

1. “Case”

“Fine. I’ll stop being picky. Just give me a case. Anything you’ve got. Please. Court case, computer case, briefcase, uppercase or lowercase letters, I don’t even care anymore. Heck, recommend me a phone case to buy if you want. Just please give me a case.”

“k”

IMDB Top 50 + Horses

First 50 of current IMDB Top 100 with “Horse” or some variation replacing a word.

1. The Horse Redemption
2. The Horsefather
3. The Horsefather, Part II
4. The Good, the Bad, and the Horse
5. Horse Fiction
6. Schindler’s Horse
7. 12 Angry Horses
8. One Flew Over The Cuckoo’s Horse
9. The Dark Horse
10. Star Wars: Episode V: The Horse Strikes Back
11. Horse
12. Horse Wars
13. The Horse of the Rings: The Return of the King
14. The Seven Horses
15. GoodHorses
16. Horse Window
17. Horse of God
18. Raiders of the Lost Horse
19. Horse Club
20. The Lord of the Rings: The Horse of the Ring
21. Once Upon a Horse in the West
22. The Usual Horses
23. Horse
24. The Horse of the Lambs
25. Horse Boulevard
26. The Horse
27. Horse
28. Dr. Horselove or: How I Learned To Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb
29. North By Horsewest
30. Hor7se
31. It’s A Wonderful Horse
32. The Lord of the Rings: The Horse Towers
33. Citizen Horse
34. Leon, aka The Horse
35. Apocalypse Horse
36. American Horse
37. Horse History X
38. Taxi Horse
39. Horsest Gump
40. Horsigo
41. Horse of Arabia
42. Horse
43. HORSE-E
44. Horse Basterds
45. Horses of Glory
46. Horse
47. Double Horse
48. Horse
49. H
50. Terminator 2: Judgment Horse